Karadzic is the former Bosnian Serb leader who was forced to step down after being indicted for war crimes. He retains much of his former political power, backed by considerable wealth that enables him to support a private police force and the enclave’s main television station. According to opponents like Plavsic, he and his cronies are massively corrupt, holding a virtual monopoly on the import of gasoline, cigarettes and other goods into Serbian areas. More than anyone else in Bosnia, Karadzic is an obstacle to the peace process. So when his former protegee, Plavsic, decided to challenge him, the newly assertive NATO allies threw her their support. But even if she wins her uphill battle, she will only diminish Karadzic, not eliminate him.
The allies acknowledge that the Dayton formula for a Bosnian federation is flawed, but they see it as the only alternative to partition. And as a senior U.S. official puts it, ““Partition, in practice, means another war.’’ Last May NATO decided its troops in Bosnia should act more vigorously to force the Serbs, Croats and Muslims to live up to Dayton. In July British troops arrested an alleged war criminal and killed another in a shoot-out. Last week British and Czech troops intervened in the northern city of Banja Luka, Plavsic’s stronghold, to clean out several nests of pro-Karadzic police. They confiscated 12 tons of weapons and may have averted a coup against Plavsic.
NATO officials now think they’re on a roll. Their next step was expected to be a move against SRT, the highly partisan and provocative radio and TV station in Pale, Karadzic’s eastern stronghold. The station can be shut down under a loophole in the Dayton agreement that allows peacekeeping forces to take action against anything that threatens their own security. But Pale is in France’s sector, so any operation would require cooperation from the French, who have been less aggressive than the British and Americans. Also on the schedule is a temporary increase in U.S. troop strength, from 8,000 soldiers to 11,000, to keep the lid on during municipal elections next month.
The allies still haven’t decided what to do about Karadzic himself. Karadzic recently put out feelers to see if Western leaders would compromise on the war-crimes issue. He suggested that he might be willing to stand trial at home, or in absentia at The Hague, testifying by long distance from the safety of Pale. That was not acceptable to the West. Several key Western officials say it is all but inevitable that NATO troops will have to capture Karadzic and hand him over for trial.
Already U.S., British and French intelligence officers are working on the reconnaissance and information-gathering phase of an operation to snatch Karadzic and other alleged Serbian war criminals. But sources say Western governments still haven’t made the political decision to grab him. As yet, there is no plan for such an operation, and no joint training has begun. For now, NATO will allow Biljana Plavsic to take the fight to Karadzic, but planners say that the day of reckoning–both for him and for NATO–cannot be put off indefinitely.
